Prices

China’s pork imports collapse in April

The two charts reproduced in this Blog are not comfortable viewing for Western pigmeat exporters.  Certainly, if the patterns shown here are repeated over the summer then Continue reading

Rabobank retreats from its China forecast

In July this year the Rabobank published its view of where global pork prices were going in the second half of 2015. It was entitled, “China’s Shrinking Hog Herd to Ignite Global Pork Trade” and it centred on the apparently huge reduction in the Chinese pig breeding herd. From this observed “fact” Rabobank predicted that Continue reading

China’s latest export – panic

If you have been on holiday this week on a sun-kissed, internet-free tropical island you may not have noticed that the news coming out of China has not been good. Indeed, it has been a wake up call for those observers who have not paid close attention to the various statistics that the Chinese economy offers as a measure of its activity. There may be some lessons in this for the global pig industry. Continue reading

Hogmageddon in the autumn?

The US hog price has behaved like the proverbial dead cat in the last few months. It was falling and then it bounced – and now it’s back on the floor, twitching. I fear this may portend a very weak global hog price in the autumn. Indeed, we may finally get “hogmageddon”. This contrasts with Continue reading

When is a trend not a trend or, is this the right way to Dublin?

You may have heard the old joke about the American tourist who asked a local Irishman how he should get to Dublin and the Irishman replied, “It depends on where you start from.” That doesn’t sound too helpful but, of course, it is a very precise response – and true. Sometimes I feel like that Irishman when I am asked, Continue reading

What would you do with $2 trillion?

January’s issue of Whole Hog Brief covers a range of subjects including: German hog numbers, exchange rate changes, weakening pig prices in the EU, North America and China, and the faltering export performance of US and Canadian packers but there is one issue that I want to highlight here Continue reading

Hold tight – 2015 will be a rollercoaster!

The front page of the December issue of Whole Hog presents the key data from the USDA’s quarterly hog census (released 23 December). These numbers suggest that  the global pig industry faces a boom and bust scenario in 2015. The impact of PEDv has created ideal conditions for supply shortages/price increases/production hikes in North America but Continue reading

PEDv drives a hog price rollercoaster – have we been here before?

US hog prices

The chart shown alongside shows how US hog prices have risen – and fallen – in response to the spread of PEDv.  From late February onwards a mixture of fear and greed, mainly driven by market rumour, has driven hog prices up and up. Prices have moved up to be about 60-70% higher than at the same time last year and commentators are full of talk about “record highs”. Price shocks like this don’t happen often in national or global markets Continue reading

India’s election raises the stakes for meat prices

Meat prices are on the up and up – and now the candidate tipped to be the next Prime Minister of India has added another reason for prices to stay up a bit longer: pork producers should take note.  Narendra Modi, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate from Gujarat, has recently repeated his view Continue reading

All pig farmers are equal – but some gloomier than others

November 2012

The November issue of Whole Hog Brief leads with an analysis of the latest UK pig herd census data and Tesco’s new commitment to offer farmers a price for pork that reflects feed price changes. It seems that some parts of the United Kingdom are reducing sow numbers much faster than others and understanding how the United Kingdom’s regions are behaving is key to forecasts of where UK pig production is heading. Understanding where Danish pig prices are going is crucial to our views of the global pork market and we have the views of the chief economist at the Danish Agriculture and Food Council in the latest issue.

Continue reading