China’s pork imports collapse in April

The two charts reproduced in this Blog are not comfortable viewing for Western pigmeat exporters.  Certainly, if the patterns shown here are repeated over the summer then Continue reading

50 shades of BREXIT

Well, the UK voters have had their “BREXIT election” and an unclear situation before the June 8 election in the UK has become even more unclear after the votes were counted. Indeed, what seemed to be a black and white decision by the UK electorate in a referendum twelve months ago has morphed into an increasing number of shades of grey ever since. Like a suicidal game of pass the parcel Continue reading

China’s pigmeat imports in 2017

The January issue of Whole Hog Brief presents a view and forecast of China’s pigmeat imports in 2016 and 2017. This Blog presents the short version of that article. Continue reading

Denmark’s pig production – modern, efficient, and changing

If an alien visitor from Mars commanded, “take me to your leading pig producing country” we would probably see spaceships landing in Tivoli Gardens in Copenhagen. That’s another way of saying that there are strong arguments for the Danish pig industry being the exemplar for the key metrics of global pig production and marketing in the 21st Century*. This is a strong statement especially Continue reading

Brexit – the shape and size of the iceberg becomes clear

In all the confusions and spin about the UK’s Brexit vote there was one obvious casualty – the facts. Sadly, the media (including the farming media) made little or no contribution to an informed and numerate description of what would be implied in the UK’s exit from the EU. This matters. It’s as if the crew of the Titanic were shouting to the passengers, “we know there is an iceberg there but we don’t think it is, “…very big/in our path/we can steer round it. You can rest safely in your cabins and/or order another drink from the bar.” Indeed. that is still the message from many Brexiteers.

I can accept that explaining the complexities of an EU exit (Brexit) is not easy – and I say that as someone with a PhD (majoring in international trade theory). But Continue reading

Breakfast means Breakfast – OK?

The UK’s referendum on 23 June 2016 has now created a new word and place in the English dictionary – Brexit. The referendum result – a win by 52% to 48% for the Leavers – means that the UK’s current crop of politicians has to negotiate an exit for the UK from the EU i.e. they have to deliver Brexit.   Within hours of the Brexit vote there was a rush Continue reading

Rabobank retreats from its China forecast

In July this year the Rabobank published its view of where global pork prices were going in the second half of 2015. It was entitled, “China’s Shrinking Hog Herd to Ignite Global Pork Trade” and it centred on the apparently huge reduction in the Chinese pig breeding herd. From this observed “fact” Rabobank predicted that Continue reading

China’s latest export – panic

If you have been on holiday this week on a sun-kissed, internet-free tropical island you may not have noticed that the news coming out of China has not been good. Indeed, it has been a wake up call for those observers who have not paid close attention to the various statistics that the Chinese economy offers as a measure of its activity. There may be some lessons in this for the global pig industry. Continue reading

Hogmageddon in the autumn?

The US hog price has behaved like the proverbial dead cat in the last few months. It was falling and then it bounced – and now it’s back on the floor, twitching. I fear this may portend a very weak global hog price in the autumn. Indeed, we may finally get “hogmageddon”. This contrasts with Continue reading

What – no growth in Chinese pork imports?

The CEOs of pork processors and farmer organizations are fond of saying that there are big opportunities for pigmeat exporters to China. But do the numbers support this claim? No, they don’t Continue reading